Takeaways from NMHC 2025: Hesitant Optimism and a Zoo of Blue Suits
Key insights from this year's conference in Vegas—what’s next for the multifamily market?
The National Multi Housing Conference (NMHC) is the annual gathering where the entire apartment industry comes together to reflect on the past year and set expectations for the year ahead. This year, it was held in Vegas, and as usual, it was a total zoo (blue suits everywhere). While the energy wasn’t as wild as when NMHC hit Vegas two years ago, the buzz was palpable, and the tone was set: hesitant optimism.
Here are a handful of takeaways from this year’s conference:
General Sentiment: Hesitant Optimism
The vibe at the conference was clear: everyone’s cautiously optimistic. The market saw a flash of what could happen when treasuries dropped into the mid-threes last September—JLL had their largest Q4 ever in 2024, driven by a wave of capital as bid-ask spreads and treasury yields compressed.
The key theme? Find the right deal. Investors are eager to deploy capital, but no one wants to overspend on the wrong property or location. Conversations across brokers, equity partners, and industry players centered on precision: how to lean in on valuations without getting burned.
The Banks Are Back
One big takeaway from the conference: banks are finally returning to the table.
I met with Wells Fargo on Tuesday, and their message was clear: their balance sheets are full, and they’ve been sitting on the sidelines for the past 18 months. Now, they’re ready to put money to work.
Expect action across all asset classes, from value-add deals to core assets.
Buyers Market? Not So Fast
It might feel like a buyer's market out there, but sellers and lenders are holding the cards:
Sellers and lenders control the timeline. They decide when (or if) they’ll bring deals to market.
Worst-case scenario? They refinance and live to fight another day. For now, they’re dictating the pace.
Austin: Not Ready for Prime Time
Avalon Bay made a bold move with a major buy in Austin this year, but in my opinion, they’re early.
Too much supply: The market is still absorbing inventory, making it nearly impossible to underwrite any meaningful rent growth.
Where’s the focus? I’m more interested in Houston and Dallas right now. Both cities stand to benefit directly from Trump’s administration policies, making them more attractive targets in the short term.
Outside those markets, we as a company are focusing on San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Las Vegas, and Kansas City as target multifamily markets.
Discount to Replacement Cost: Not an Investment Thesis
A lively conversation with a buddy at Berkshire brought up this recurring argument: “discount to replacement cost” often gets touted as a safety net for downside risk, but it’s not a thesis to build an investment strategy around.
Why? Who’s to say construction costs will keep rising indefinitely?
Sure, tariffs are inflationary for construction commodities, but the lack of new project starts today could push subcontractors to lower their pricing.
The truth is, there’s no guarantee that “stuff gets more expensive with time.” Betting on that isn’t enough to justify an investment.
Final Thoughts
This year’s NMHC gave us a lot to chew on:
The market’s poised for opportunity if the bid-ask spread tightens again, but sellers and lenders still hold the upper hand.
Banks are finally back in the mix, which could grease the wheels for more deals across asset classes.
Austin might not be ready yet, but Houston and Dallas are looking solid.
Let’s hear your thoughts—what’s your take on this year’s NMHC themes? Drop a comment below or reach out.
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